Our forecast algorithm considers all the possible variables that could influence non-brand organic traffic, to generate precise and reliable estimates. It generates three key metrics: additional sessions, conversions, and revenue. We calculate conversions by simply multiplying the estimated additional sessions with the conversion rate of the targeted keywords. We calculate revenue by multiplying the total conversions by the Average Order Value. This article explains, in greater detail, how we source these values that form the Conversion Data section of the Forecast creation wizard.
Best Match Conversion Rate
All the connected campaigns benefit from our Search Console and Analytics integration (GSC and GA4) and our (not provided) solution. Enabled by this, we have a 3-level precision approach in place to find the most probable rate – what we call the Best Match Conversion Rate. We try to pull the closest 30-day average conversion rate for each keyword from all the data available in the following order:
Keyword-level conversion rates: The Traffic module processes historical performance data from GSC and GA4, including keyword conversion rates. This is the most precise, as it is based on actual traffic, and is used if available. In some cases, this historical data might not be available - for instance, a new keyword being tracked only for the past few days or weeks will not have historical data.
Landing page conversion rate: When the keyword-level conversion rates are not available in Organic Traffic, we get the conversion rate for the landing page that appears in the SERP for that keyword.
Overall conversion rate for all non-brand keywords: If neither of the above is available, we use the conversion rate of the entire non-brand organic traffic recorded for the last 30 days. This is less precise but still valuable, as it excludes the branded keyword conversion rates, which would significantly distort the estimations.
If you expect a different conversion rate for the forecast timeframe, you can turn off the Best match toggle to enter a custom conversion rate that will be applicable for all keywords of the campaign.
This 3-level precision ensures the most precise calculation of the number of conversions, giving you more reliable forecast estimates.
Note: For all the campaigns that don't have GSC/GA4 connected, the Best Match toggle is disabled. This means that you will have to input a custom conversion rate to proceed with the forecast creation.
Average Order Value
We use the Average Order value to calculate the revenue generated from the conversions. On the Forecast creation wizard, if the Automatic toggle is turned on, the Average Order Value is taken from the connected GA4 account. If GA4 is not connected, the toggle is disabled, and you will need to input a custom Average Order Value to proceed with the forecast creation.